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European Union citizen living in South America with 15+ years (in the trenches)…

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Publicaciones

  • SARS-CoV-2 waves in Europe: A 2-stratum SEIRS model solution

    Preprint

    We extended the SEIRS model to stratified isolation levels for healthy <60 and vulnerable individuals. We forced the model to predict daily deaths curves and the reported age serology ratio for key metropolitan areas in Europe. The immunity level estimations obtained were: Madrid 43%; Catalonia 24%; Brussels 73%; and Stockholm 65%. We predict that, with the exception of Brussels, no location can return to normal life without having a second wave (albeit in Stockholm a smaller one)…

    We extended the SEIRS model to stratified isolation levels for healthy <60 and vulnerable individuals. We forced the model to predict daily deaths curves and the reported age serology ratio for key metropolitan areas in Europe. The immunity level estimations obtained were: Madrid 43%; Catalonia 24%; Brussels 73%; and Stockholm 65%. We predict that, with the exception of Brussels, no location can return to normal life without having a second wave (albeit in Stockholm a smaller one). Those predictions are more sensitive to population, population over 60, and the reported deaths than to the IFR. or locations far from the herd immunity threshold (HIT) we searched what isolation values allow to return to normal life in 90 days while minimizing final deaths. Shockingly all isolation values for healthy <60 were negative. (i.e. coronavirus parties). We found that mandatory isolations (i.e. schools and workplaces closed) produces more final deaths if the vaccination date is later than (Madrid: March 7 2021; Catalonia: Dec 26 2020; Paris: Jan 12 2021; London: Jan 25 2021). Finally, we propose that the probability of covid-19 disease-related damages suffered and caused by a single individual choosing NOT to completely isolate should be used to cover those risks. If some virus is so contagious and so damaging to a large proportion of the population that the disease-related damages risks can not be covered, then that virus pretty much will be the end of normal life. SARS-CoV-2 is not. https://twitter.com/federicolois/status/1316127717331480578

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